The global contest to provide the critical minerals needed for the energy transition is underway. However, as the price of raw materials and renewable technologies has soared, ‘greenflation’ and the rising cost associated with the energy transition has sparked concern. 
 
Demand for raw minerals is set to outstrip supply, one element putting pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts lithium for batteries consumption will increase 51x by 2040 versus today, while the growth figures for cobalt, nickel and copper are respectively 21x, 9.7x and 6.2x.
 
However, advances in technology and regulatory mechanisms are starting to mitigate inflationary pressures. Over the past decade, the cost of solar and wind energy has decreased by 85% and 55% respectively, due to improvements in manufacturing efficiencies and economies of scale.
 
While cutting-edge technologies are pricey, some more established forms of renewable energy are now cheaper than fossil fuels. The IEA confirmed that utility-scale photovoltaic solar is the ‘least costly option for new electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide’. According to a 2024 report from financial advisory firm Lazard, which uses US-focused data, the levelized cost of utility-scale solar ranges from $29 to $92 per MWh, versus $45 to $108 for gas. Onshore wind is even cheaper at $27 to $73 per MWh, although offshore wind is pricier.
 
Moreover, emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and small modular reactors (SMRs) for nuclear energy offer the potential for cost-effective decarbonization. For example, the IEA projects that with sufficient policy support, SMRs could provide a scalable and affordable low-carbon energy source by the 2030s.

To find a balance with this fragility in today’s energy markets is fundamental energy security, and the ways that more efficient, cleaner energy systems can reduce energy security risks. 

The increasingly visible impacts of climate change, the momentum behind clean energy transitions, and the characteristics of clean energy technologies are all changing what it means to have secure energy systems.  A comprehensive approach to energy security therefore needs to extend beyond traditional fuels to cover the secure transformation of the electricity sector and the resilience of clean energy supply chains. 
 
Energy security and climate action are inextricably linked: extreme weather events, intensified by decades of high emissions, are already posing profound energy security risks.
 
In this goZERO edition, you’ll find numerous insights on how to achieve balance not only in mitigating costs and security risks, but also in addressing the innovations and solutions required for a sustainable and equitable energy transition. 
Andrea Bombardi
Global Market Development Executive Vice President, RINA

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